THE FIFTH DOWN; Magical Jaguar Mystery

Chase Stuart contributes to the Pro-Football-Reference.com blog and to Footballguys.com.

Three months ago, the sports media had three things to say about the Jaguars:

1) Can you believe Jacksonville drafted Tyson Alualu instead of Tim Tebow?

2) When is this team moving to Los Angeles?

3) How is Jack Del Rio still the coach?

Jacksonville might have been the blandest team in the league, with possibly the most apathetic fan base. But with an 8-5 record in mid-December, none of the above matters. With a win on Sunday against the Colts, Jacksonville would wrap up its first division title since Tom Coughlin’s squad won its third straight A.F.C. Central crown in 1999. With the Jaguars all but ignored in the national media, you might be wondering how the Jags are winning games this year.

There’s only one answer to that: unconventionally. Jacksonville’s pass defense is miserable, fluctuating weekly with the Texans for last place in net yards per attempt allowed and adjusted net yards per attempted allowed. The Jaguars are tied with the Broncos and the Vikings for the honor of worst turnover margin, unthinkable for an offense that leads the league in rushing attempts. And Jacksonville has been outscored by 36 points, after being blown out by three touchdowns or more in four games this season. If the Jaguars win one more game, they’ll become just the fourth team since 1940 to have a winning record despite four losses of 21 points or more.

Despite a terrible pass defense, its struggles to hold on to the ball or to take it away from its opponents, and the decision to seemingly skip every third game, Jacksonville can clinch the division with two weeks to play. How? The obvious person to look to is Maurice Jones-Drew, the running back who ranks second in the league in both rushing yards and yards from scrimmage. But Arian Foster leads the league in those two categories, and the Texans’ pass defense is just as bad, so there’s more to the story.

David Garrard is having a solid but unspectacular season. His best attribute this season has been the ability to limit all his bad plays to games the Jaguars are going to lose anyway. In losses to the Giants, Eagles and Chargers, Garrard has thrown six interceptions with one touchdown while averaging just 5.0 yards per attempt. He was injured early in the Jaguars’ flop against the Titans and didn’t play when the team allowed 42 points to the Chiefs. Meanwhile, in seven of Jacksonville’s victories, Garrard has thrown for 17 touchdowns with just two interceptions while averaging 9.0 yards per attempt.

For the most part, Jacksonville has had the benefit of good fortune and good timing. In Week 1, Brandon Lloyd’s second foot grazed the end zone sideline, negating a potential game-tying touchdown late in the fourth quarter. Three weeks later, the Jaguars defeated the Colts thanks to Josh Scobee’s 59-yard field goal as time expired. In Week 10, it was Glover Quin and Mike Thomas teaming up to convert a desperation pass to beat the Texans. The next week they turned the ball over six times, but Maurice Jones-Drew picked the right time to rev up his ESPY campaign. With just over two minutes left, Jones-Drew took a screen pass 75 yards to the Cleveland 1-yard line, weaving across the field and breaking four tackles in one of the highlights of the year.

Their overall numbers are underwhelming. But so far, the Jaguars have been able to consolidate the bad plays to a few games, while making their biggest plays when it counts most. Both Jones-Drew and Rashad Jennings rushed for over 100 yards against the Raiders on Sunday, but the team still needed Deji Karim’s 65-yard kickoff return in the final minutes to put away the Raiders. The unquestioned strength of the team is red hot; the Jags have topped the 200-yard rushing mark in each of the last three weeks. Awaiting them on Sunday: the 29th-ranked rushing defense in Indianapolis.

If Jacksonville makes the playoffs, what can we expect? Since 1990, only three teams have made the playoffs despite being outscored by 25 points or more. The 2004 Rams, playing in one of the league’s all-time terrible divisions, went 8-8 and earned a wild card berth. The Rams swept the Seahawks in the regular season and then defeated them in the first round of the playoffs, before getting steamrolled by Mike Vick and the Falcons in the second round. The 1998 Arizona Cardinals — perhaps the worst playoff team ever — played the easiest schedule in the league and were outscored by 53 points. But then the Cards managed to go into Dallas, where they had lost by 28 points in Week 1, and upset the Cowboys in the first round of the playoffs. They lost, 41-21, to the Vikings the next week. The ’94 Bears were outscored by 36 points but went into Minnesota and won in the first round of the playoffs. They were obliterated by the 49ers the following week, 44-15. Like those three teams, the Jaguars have been inconsistently good, and are prone to surprise wins and blowout losses in the regular season. There’s nothing to say that that trend won’t continue in the playoffs.

Going up? Going Down

Colts Receiver Collie Out for the Season

receiver Austin Collie sustained a concussion Sunday against Jacksonville, and the team placed him on injured reserve Wednesday.

Despite missing five games and more than a half in three others, Collie leads all Indianapolis receivers with eight touchdown catches, and is second in receptions (58) and third in yards (649).

Collie was injured late in the first half against Jacksonville when linebacker Daryl Smith appeared to hit him in the head with his forearm as Collie went low to make a catch. It was his second concussion of the season.

“He certainly is a guy that’s going to be missed,” Colts Coach Jim Caldwell said. “From a medical standpoint, we are concerned more so about his health than anything else. This is the right thing for him at this particular time.”

Manning had already lost tight end Dallas Clark and receiver Anthony Gonzalez for the season, and running back Joseph Addai has missed the past eight games with a shoulder injury. MEMO ON WORKPLACE CONDUCT The sent a workplace conduct update to its teams in which Commissioner emphasized the effect improper behavior can have on others.

The memo is a reminder of the league’s belief that “all employees and associates of the N.F.L. have the right to work in a positive environment” free from all forms of harassment, intimidation and discrimination.

In response to an incident at ’ training facility in September after which Ines Sainz of TV Azteca said she felt uncomfortable in the team’s locker room, the team developed a workplace conduct program, underwritten by owner Woody Johnson. Wednesday’s league memo is a follow-up on that episode.

“Each of us must fully understand just how powerful an impact our own personal behavior can have on those we work with,” Goodell said, “and why the individual decisions we make within our workplace must be good ones. It is not enough to stand behind the strong values of the N.F.L.; we must stand for them.”

TEBOW TO REMAIN STARTER It’s time for the rest of the season whether Kyle Orton likes the situation or not. Orton said he was informed by the that Tebow will start not only Sunday against Houston, but in the season finale the next week, when San Diego visits Invesco Field.

Jets Lose to Bears but Claim Playoff Berth

The lost to Chicago, , on Sunday. They lost the to New England. Yet mere minutes after the Jets sat slumped at their lockers, Washington toppled Jacksonville, delivering the Jets (10-5) a wild-card berth despite their fifth defeat.

“I don’t know how to explain it,” offensive tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson said. “It was like we lost, but we still won.”

Indeed. As Coach plowed through his postgame news conference, running back LaDainian Tomlinson, quarterback and several Jets assistants gathered around a small television in cramped quarters near the locker room. The escaped with a field goal in overtime, and Tomlinson bounded into the locker room. He shouted, “We’re in. We’re in,” as if, tight end Dustin Keller would say later, “it was his birthday and he just got a big gift.”

Players stood. They exchanged hugs and hand slaps. They yelled. They cheered. They celebrated as if the scoreboard had somehow changed. Only it had not.

Ryan heard all of this through the wall of the coaches’ office. He smiled.

“By the way,” he told reporters, “I think we’re in the playoffs.”

Not everyone shared in the good vibrations. Linebacker Bart Scott walked slowly toward the showers, head shaking in disgust. The Jets’ defense, Ryan’s defense, the unit that anchors this team’s identity, did not perform close to a level that justified jubilation.

Scott began listing all the issues, the 169 all-purpose yards surrendered to running back Matt Forte, the three touchdown passes thrown by quarterback Jay Cutler, the 21 points allowed in the third quarter, the miscommunication, the lack of execution. On one play, Scott said, the Jets sent only 10 defenders onto the field.

At a nearby locker, linebacker Calvin Pace shared Scott’s sentiment. He said the Jets played their worst quarter of the season after halftime Sunday.

“All that matters is we gave the game away,” Pace said. “That’s the bottom line.”

The game turned early into the third quarter, with the Jets ahead, 24-17, and facing a fourth-and-3 at their 40-yard line. All week, Ryan said special teams had practiced a certain fake punt, and despite the lead, despite the field position, they tried it.

Sanchez was in the backfield with the punter, took a direct snap and fired an incompletion. On the next play, Cutler lobbed a beautiful spiral down the right sideline to receiver Johnny Knox, who hauled it in for a 40-yard touchdown. Cutler would throw all three of his touchdowns in the third quarter, while the Jets’ defense seemed to take time off.

The failed fake changed everything. “I don’t know what they were thinking with that one,” Cutler said.

The Jets also inexplicably kicked to Devin Hester, who last week set the career record for most touchdown returns. Hester returned one punt 38 yards in the third quarter, setting up his own touchdown reception. Later in the quarter, he returned a kickoff 40 yards before Cutler delivered another touchdown pass to Knox.

The Jets managed a 34-yard field goal by Nick Folk early in the fourth, which cut the deficit to the final margin. In this season of stirring, last-second victories, Sanchez, for as well as he played Sunday, could not summon another comeback.

Still, Sanchez’s performance said something to his teammates. They watched as he marched through last week with torn cartilage in his throwing shoulder, as he rehabbed and rested and promised he would play. He looked sharp against Chicago’s (11-4) formidable defense, completing 24 of 37 passes for 269 yards, with one touchdown pass to Santonio Holmes and one interception that came on the Jets’ final possession.

“You see the pretty boy, the surfer image,” receiver Braylon Edwards said. “He’s tougher than that. Slowly but surely, he’s turning into the guy this organization needs.”

On offense, the Jets made progress. Ferguson continued to play at a Pro Bowl level. With help, he rendered the All-Pro defensive end Julius Peppers a nonfactor. Running back Shonn Greene gained 70 yards on 12 carries, showing shades of his emergence around this time last year.

But this game also symbolized perhaps the most troubling aspect of these Jets. They remain a team that seems to trade progression (on offense) for regression (on defense and special teams). Other weeks, it works the other way. The elusive complete game remains just that.

“We’ve done it in spurts, in different phases,” Sanchez said. “We’re all going to have to do it at the same time if we’re going to make a run like we did last year.”

Ah, yes, last year. The Jets advanced to the A.F.C. title game as a wild card, poaching a pair of playoff victories on the road. As the team remained here Sunday night while a blizzard headed toward New York, they surely were reminded of that run.

If their latest defeat lingered a little less, so be it. The Jets’ last five playoff berths were clinched on the season’s final week. But not this one, not Sunday, not when the Jets somehow lost and won at the same time.